What the early results in Namibia's 2024 election reveal
Swapo will struggle to retain a majority in parliament, while opposition groups make inroads
If the results of the special voting held on 13 November are anything to go by, Namibia is in for a tectonic shift in the political landscape as voters have begun to turn their backs on traditionally dominant parties in search of alternatives.
In what has been described as a ‘dry run’ for the upcoming nationwide election, 14,203 votes were cast on Wednesday at 33 polling stations in Namibia and a further 2,147 at 35 diplomatic missions abroad, as per the Electoral Commission of Namibia.
The purpose of the early voting ahead of the national election on 27 November was to afford an opportunity to Namibians abroad, as well as seagoing personnel and government officials, such as the police who will be working on the day of the main election, to vote in the 2024 parliamentary and presidential elections.
Although Swapo and its presidential candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah were able to maintain the lead in this round of voting, there are notable indications that if these results are replicated nationwide, Swapo would lose its long-held majority in parliament, as the results announced on Thursday indicate that there is likely to be a significant change in the balance of forces in parliament.
Breaking it down
Skewed results
The overall results show that Swapo and Nandi-Ndaitwah retained their lead, although significantly reduced because the party lost support in several key places, where the IPC proved to be a strong contender, with AR also in the running.
The results, especially from smaller diplomatic missions abroad, may be somewhat skewed by the likelihood that most — if not all — members of diplomatic staff are drawn from the ranks of Swapo loyalists, who would be inclined to support the party that deployed them in order to retain their cushy jobs abroad. That there were a number of dissenting votes is an indication that even within its own ranks and the Swapo-dominated civil service, there is notable dissatisfaction with the ruling party.
Swapo’s shrinking vote share
The tallies from abroad provide an interesting picture of the voting trends. For one, it is notable that in smaller diplomatic missions, such as that in China and Switzerland, Swapo and its presidential candidate were largely able to maintain a clear lead, often taking +90% of the votes, but in countries where large numbers of Namibian emigrees live and work, Swapo was occasionally beaten by the IPC.
This is true in places such as Cape Town and London, where significant numbers of Namibians have emigrated to in search of a better life and opportunities, given the disgraceful levels of inequality, unemployment, hunger and poverty in the country, for which they are likely to blame Swapo, which has been in power for 35 years.
Thus, of the 759 Namibians who voted in Cape Town the top three parties were IPC (327), Swapo (289) and AR (72), while for the presidency Itula got 323 votes, Nandi-Ndaitwah 303, and Amupanda 39.
A similar result was seen in London, where IPC was in first position with 40 votes; AR in second place (30) and Swapo in third (25), while Itula was the preferred presidential candidate (52), followed by Nandi-Ndaitwah (38) and Amupanda (20).
It was a slightly different story in Pretoria though, where Swapo won 83 votes, IPC only 26 and AR 21. Here Nandi-Ndaitwah led the presidential race with 93 votes to Itula’s 34, followed by Venaani with 12 votes.
In Zambia, the opposition made gains although Swapo retained its lead with 51 votes against IPC’s 41 and AR’s 35. In the presidential race Nandi-Ndaitwah got 72, Itula 51, and Amupanda 13, indicating also that Namibian voters in Zambia were more likely to support AR for parliament than the presidency, as also seen in Cape Town, Pretoria and London.
In Luanda though, IPC hardly featured, with Swapo scoring 20 votes for parliament, AR 7 and IPC only 2, while for the presidency Nandi-Ndaitwah led the charge (22), leaving Itula in second place (5), and Amupanda in third (2).
In Egypt, Swapo got all ten votes for parliament and Nandi-Ndaitwah 9. So too, in Harare, they made a clean sweep. Similarly in Botswana, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Ethiopia, Swapo dominated, leaving only scraps for the contenders.
These initial results, as noted by Swapo’s critics, may be affected by the unwritten policy of deploying Swapo cadre and party loyalists in diplomatic missions abroad, but it is notable that in countries where larger groups of Namibians reside, there was a marked increase in support of opposition groups against Swapo.
Yet public discontent with the ruling party could be felt, even among its cadre and in the Nordic countries. In Sweden, Swapo came in second place with only 8 votes, while IPC led with 14, leaving AR in third place with 2 votes. In Finland, Swapo and IPC both got 11 votes, with AR scoring 7.
In western Europe, Swapo, retained its lead. In Berlin it led with 33 votes, followed by IPC (23), and AR in third place (21). For the presidency, Nandi-Ndaitwah got 45 votes, Itula 30 and Venaani 15, indicating a notable aversion among AR supporters to an Amupanda presidency.
In Belgium, Swapo got 14 votes, followed by AR (11) and IPC (9). Nandi-Ndaitwah got 16, and Itula 13. Here again Amupanda got fewer votes (8) than his party.
Looking to Asia, of the 44 Namibians who voted in India, 18 backed Nandi-Ndaitwah, while Itula got 17 and Venaani 6. In Russia, Swapo got 13 votes, IPC 11, and AR 9, while in the presidential race we see a similar pattern, with Nandi-Ndaitwah gaining 18, Itula 14, and Amupanda with 3, getting notably fewer votes than his party.
Swapo also dominated in Japan and in China, where Nandi-Ndaitwah garnered 25 votes, Itula 6 and Amupanda 4, while in the parliamentary ballot Swapo got 24 and AR 7, leaving IPC in third place with 4, suggesting that as in other places where AR beat IPC in the parliamentary race, voters were more likely to support Itula over Amupanda.
This pattern was also seen in France, where Swapo led with 14 votes to AR’s 5 and IPC’s 3, but notably in the presidential ballot Amupanda got only one vote, while Itula picked up 6 and Nandi-Ndaitwah 17.
The race in Austria ended in a draw, leaving Swapo and IPC with 10 votes each and AR with 5, while Venaani overtook Amupanda in the presidential race there, which also ended as a tie between Nandi-Ndaitwah and Itula on 13 each, leaving Venaani with 2.
It would thus appear that in places with greater numbers of Namibian voters, such as Cape Town and London, Swapo’s unquestioned dominance was effectively challenged.
If this trend among Namibians abroad reflects wider voter sentiment within the country, IPC could stand a chance of winning a parliamentary majority, although at this stage Nandi-Ndaitwah is ostensibly the voters’ preferred candidate for president.
Voters respond to harsh policies
Despite fears that the IPC’s dismal treatment of poorer residents in towns and cities that it governs could backfire, as voters respond to harsh measures such as water and electricity cuts and unforgiving debt collection tactics, those voters who had previously abandoned Swapo could return to their home base, the results showed that IPC retained its dominance in Walvis Bay, Namibia’s fastest growing urban centre, where at Nakambale Church voting station A, IPC got 313 votes for parliament against Swapo’s 170, while Itula got 336 against Nandi-Ndaitwah’s 225, leaving Venaani with 19 in third place. Here too, we see that Amupanda’s bid for the presidency consistently gets fewer votes than AR, as he got 13 compared to 28 voters who supported AR’s bid for parliamentary seats. This pattern recurred at all voting stations in the Bay.
The revenge of the voters was the order of the day in Windhoek West, where Swapo voters stomped all over the opposition parties that currently control the city and left them in the dust, scoring 780 votes against IPC’s paltry 156 and AR’s 103. The weak performance of LPM (30) and PDM (28) in the very place where they are based is of some historical significance.
Venaani loses ground
Given their poor showing in the early voting exercise this week, all indications are that the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM) is popular in name only and that McHenry Venaani will be unseated this month as the leader of the official opposition, a lucrative position he has long clung to with might and main, but which may be the highest political office he is likely to attain as PDM’s aging support base increasingly falls away, unless of course he goes into coalition with the winning party, which he may well do to attain a Cabinet position and retain some relevance on the political stage.
AR makes strides
The new kid on the block, the Affirmative Repositioning (AR) party, led by motormouth Job Amupanda has gained significant support among mostly younger voters in a number of regions and among Namibians abroad, and if the current trend is sustained in the upcoming elections, AR would become the third-largest group in parliament, surpassing PDM, which appears to have reached its sell-by date.
If the winning party — which is likely to be Swapo or the IPC — is unable to secure a sound majority to form a government they would be obliged to enter into a coalition with an opposition group, in which case AR as third strongest party in parliament could find itself in the position of kingmaker, with an opportunity to negotiate for Cabinet-level positions and policy concessions in exchange for their support.
Swartbooi has cause for concern
The Landless People’s Movement (LPM) led by the always-angry Bernardus Swartbooi — who famously said they “have nothing to learn from the AR boys” and that he would break their necks — on the other hand secured very few votes in this round, either abroad or within the country, and suffered significant losses and embarrassment in the southern regions, which LPM considers its home turf.
At Oranjemund the party came in fourth with 23 votes for parliament, after Swapo (53), IPC (46) and AR (29). Here Itula was preferred for president (63), followed by Nandi-Ndaitwah (59),and Amupanda (21) leaving Swartbooi trailing with 16 votes.
LPM’s showing in Swartbooi’s heartland, Keetmanshoop Urban, was even more dismal, as Swapo got 326 votes, IPC 81, and LPM only 65, while in the presidentiral race Swartbooi lagged behind in third place with 55 votes, compared to Nandi-Ndaitwah’s 364 and Itula’s 107.
The pattern was repeated at Lüderitz, where Swapo took 164 votes in the parliamentary race, IPC 127, and LPM only 33. In the presidential ballot Nandi-Ndaitwah got 175 and Itula 147, while Swartbooi got even fewer votes than his party (31).
In Mariental Urban, Swapo secured 144 votes, leaving LPM trailing a distant second with 46 and IPC third with 32, while in the presidential contest Nandi-Ndaitwah got more votes (153) than Swapo, and Swartbooi fewer than his party (45). Itula was third with 35 votes.
Having squandered much of their political capital on their rude antics in and out of parliament, rocked by infighting, by high-profile resignations, nepotism, and harmful policies, such as household water cuts that hurt the poorest and most vulnerable, Swartbooi and his faithful followers, after the initial honeymoon, are likely to feel the revenge of the voters this time around.
LPM initially benefited from the newness factor and enjoyed widespread support from voters hoping for radical change to their conditions of life, but they have since revealed themselves to be rather uncaring as politicians and unfit for the task of radical transformational leadership, not to speak of leading the country. All indications are voters have fallen out of love with the abrasive Swartbooi. If the current trend holds, LPM would have a reduced number of seats in parliament, having lost the support of many of their core voters, whom they seemingly treated as voting fodder
Swanu out for the count
With the number of their supporters dwindling year after year, Namibia’s oldest political party, the South West Africa National Union (Swanu) hardly made any impact on Wednesday and appears to be a moribund and defunct entity, a relic of a bygone era, as out of place as an old public phone booth in the age of mobile telephony.
Swanu has also been mired in factional strife and infighting as there was fierce competition for the leadership of the party, which normally comes with a cushy seat in parliament for the top man. Led by former Swapo stalwart, Swanu’s presidential candidate Evilastus Kaaronda — who was accused by his rivals of usurping the position after his attempt to set up a party (POWER) with the suspected fraudster Michael Amushelelo, now a member of the Namibia Economic Freedom Fighters (NEFF), fell apart ahead of the last election following the freezing of Amushe’s assets — attracted very few votes, scoring zero in most constituencies at home and abroad.
Notably at Gobabis, which is presumably one of Swanu’s strongholds, Kaaronda got five whole votes, while his party got 12 votes, which if extrapolated would suggest the majority of Swanu voters there do not support his candidacy.
All indications from past and present electoral results are that Swanu will never govern Namibia, and Kaaronda will never be president. Indeed, it would be a stroke of luck for them to secure one seat in the upcoming elections and with it a cherished place at the sumptuous buffet in the Tintenpalast dining hall. All in all, it is hard to escape the conclusion that Swanu is no longer a force in Namibian politics.
Conclusion
The results thus far do not offer a perfect sample of what is likely to happen next, but offer some good indicators of voting patterns, although it should be kept in mind that Swapo’s dominance at the polls in this round may reflect — as their critics insist — the skewed recruitment practices of the governing party, which has seemingly staffed most police roles and civil service positions at home and abroad with its supporters.
However, the rapid rise of IPC in the polls and the insurgent campaign by AR may yet cause an upset to the status quo in parliament, inasmuch as Swapo is likely to still win but by a reduced margin. It is highly unlikely that the governing party will secure a two-thirds majority in parliament. At this stage it is not even assured of an outright majority, meaning Namibia may be entering a period of coalition politics for the foreseeable future, where no single party has a sole mandate to govern.